Settlement
Settlement is the official resolution of a market or question, determining whether outcome is YES or NO and triggering payout or scoring.
Definition
Settlement is when an event is officially resolved and the outcome is finalized. For evaluation, settlement defines the ground truth outcome used in scoring.
Why it matters
Scorecards require a clear outcome (0 or 1). Settlement rules define which source is used, what happens in ambiguous cases, and when the market is considered final.
Common pitfalls
• Ambiguous resolution criteria
• Late changes in settlement sources
• Treating preliminary results as final
Related
Settlement is connected to forecast horizon and to evaluation integrity issues like look ahead bias if you accidentally use information after settlement time for earlier forecasts.