Verify Your Predictions

Calculate Brier Score, Skill Score, and Calibration. Stop guessing, start measuring.

Enter your forecasted probability (0-1) and the actual outcome.
We'll calculate your Brier Score (accuracy), Skill Score (vs chance), and Calibration.

Latest Guides

Designing a Fair Leaderboard: Rules That Stop Gaming

Most forecasting leaderboards reward timing, cherry picking, or low volume luck. This guide gives practical rules that make a leaderboard fair: eligibility pools, coverage requirements, checkpoints, liquidity flags, and transparent methodology.

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Backtesting Forecasters: A Minimal, Repeatable Template

Backtesting forecasters is not about fancy models. It is about clean rules: what gets scored, when it gets scored, and what baseline you compare to. This guide gives a minimal template you can repeat every month without changing the goalposts.

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Herding vs Independent Forecasting: When Consensus Hurts

Following the crowd can improve accuracy when you have no edge, but it can also destroy learning, hide weak calibration, and create fake confidence. This guide explains herding, when consensus is useful, and when you should stay independent.

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